Syria at a Crossroads: The Fall of Assad and a Fragile New Beginning

By SyriacPress | Highlighting an Interview with Amy Austin Holmes

HASAKAH, SYRIA — The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s tumultuous history, but its aftermath remains fraught with uncertainty. In an exclusive interview with Syriac Press, Amy Austin Holmes, a Research Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University, shed light on the complex interplay of domestic and international forces that led to the regime’s collapse, as well as the pressing challenges facing Syria’s transitional government.

Holmes dismissed the notion of a single decisive factor in Assad’s fall, instead pointing to a convergence of military campaigns and geopolitical shifts. She credited multiple factions for their role in toppling the regime, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led key offensives in Aleppo and Damascus, alongside the Southern Operations Room and the Syrian Democratic Forces operating in Hasakah and Qamishli.

Yet, Holmes highlighted the broader geopolitical landscape as equally influential. She noted how U.S. support for Ukraine, in response to Russia’s invasion, weakened Moscow’s ability to sustain its ally in Damascus. Concurrently, Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah forces in Syria further destabilized Assad’s regime.

“It would be inaccurate to give sole credit to HTS,” Holmes stated in the interview. “The fall of the Assad regime was the result of numerous, intersecting factors.”

A Wary Transition

With Assad’s departure, the focus has shifted to the uncertain prospects of Syria’s transitional government. Holmes described the current political environment as “tentative and volatile,” with international delegations from France, Germany, and the United States visiting Damascus—a clear sign of global concern.

Holmes emphasized the necessity of inclusivity in the new government to ensure stability. “The transitional phase after March will be crucial,” she said. “What Syria needs now is a government that genuinely incorporates all ethnic and religious communities.”

Minority Concerns Loom Large

The protection of minorities has emerged as a key test for Syria’s new leadership. Holmes recounted her recent visit to Damascus during Christmas, where she observed mixed sentiments among Christian communities. While some Christians canceled public celebrations due to security concerns, others participated in traditional parades.

In Homs, the situation appeared more precarious. Holmes highlighted tensions between Christians, Alawites, and HTS forces conducting operations in the city. She described reports of targeted searches in Alawite neighborhoods and incidents of mistreatment, including harassment of a Christian priest.

“These are deeply concerning issues,” Holmes remarked. “The new government must take concrete steps to ensure minority protections and address fears of marginalization.”

Global Stakes in Syria’s Transition

The stakes of Syria’s transition extend far beyond its borders. Holmes underscored the international community’s watchful eye on developments in Damascus, as the fragile new government navigates a path toward stability.

“The international community is watching closely,” she said. “The success of Syria’s transitional government depends on its ability to overcome sectarian divisions and create a truly inclusive political framework.”

As Holmes highlighted, the road ahead is fraught with challenges but not without hope. Syria’s future will depend on its ability to reconcile internal divisions and rebuild a nation where all its people can coexist. For now, the world watches and waits.