What should the new Syria look like?

By Suphi Aksoy

The Syrian Arab Republic collapsed on December 8, 2024, as a result of internal opposition forces and the intervention of international powers. There is no longer a centralized state system within the Syrian geography.

After World War I, French efforts to establish a Syrian state continued until 1945. The legacy of the Ottoman Empire saw the establishment of several states in its former territories. France and England put into practice the Sykes-Picot Agreement. Syria came under French rule. Within this geography, various political formations arose in Aleppo, Damascus, Latakia, and the Druze Mountains. Although an attempt was made to revive the centralized state with King Faisal, who was imported from contemporary Saudi Arabia, the monarchical form of government was not successful. Nevertheless, the Syrian government formed by the French on October 24, 1945, accepted the United Nations Charter and gained official international status as a republic in 1946.

In February 1958, the United Arab Republic was established with Egypt. Shortly after the Ba’ath Party took power, however, Syria was subjected under the oppression of a centralized and unified administration. The Syrian Arab Republic was formed under the umbrella of the Ba’athist ideology, and its institutions were established. As a result, the identities, languages, historical and cultural heritage, and schooling of the different peoples incorporating the land were banned. Politics became the monopoly of certain social classes, and brutal methods of violence were used against those with different ideas. The Syrian Arab Republic was placed on four pillars: The army, the Ba’ath Party, intelligence, and the dictatorship of the Assad family after 1971. The state built on these pillars was liquidated on December 8, 2024, when Bashar al-Assad fled to allied Russia, and the leaders of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham settled in Damascus. Consequently, Syria turned into no more than a geographical area inhabited by different peoples, without a real central system between them. While Turkey and Israel took control of some areas, different armed groups with members of various citizenships spread over the Syrian land. The coalition government formed by several jihadist organizations in Idlib now moved its headquarters to Damascus. However, this does not mean that there is a unified regime in Syria, as the efforts by the people of Latakia, Tartous and the Alawite and Ismaili sects to protect their existence are still ongoing. In Suweyda, the Druze do not accept the administration of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.

The interim government set up by the Turkish-affiliated opposition and the Syrian National Army did not participate in the transitional administration in the capital. The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria also defends its own model and presents it as a project to be considered for all of Syria. Syria’s central institutions, such as the army and the government, will never be the same. It will not be possible to achieve internal peace without a constitution that recognizes the status of Syriacs, Kurds, Druze, Alawites and all other ethnic and religious identities, and without guaranteeing the rights of all segments of society. Since 2011, the will to govern Syria has been in the hands of different regional and international powers, and this situation continues albeit with some differences. Now that Iran, Russia and their militias moved out of the picture, their allied Assad dictatorship has also lost its official status. Instead, the influence of the United States, England and France on the new actors has become clear and decisive. But Israel and Turkey are also seeking a role in the new Syria. The United States and its allies are the guarantor for Israel’s victory in this competition. Either Turkey is completely excluded from Syria, or it becomes part of the U.S. strategy. Since Israel’s security is a fundamental and sensitive issue in the equation, the powers in the Middle East may not pose a threat or danger to Israel, otherwise a plan to completely change the map of the region will be implemented. Under this plan, new structures will emerge in Syria, Iraq and Iran. In the first step, while the Kurdistan Federations will be advanced, new statuses for the Syriac (Assyrian-Chaldean-Aramean) people and Christians will be determined according to their demographic and geographic location.

The developments in Turkey, although still uncertain, may soon enter an active phase with the movements that will take place in the region. Thus, when the fault lines in the region are simultaneously triggered and peoples start moving and taking action, the search for change and solutions will also acquire a more region-wide character. While the Turkish government is facing this impending political storm, it has started to take unexpected steps. On the one hand, they are implementing a policy of destruction, denial and violence, and on the other hand, they are talking about plans for a new constitution and the brotherhood of peoples. Starting from October 7, 2023, Hamas changed the Middle East with its terrorist acts, just as happened because of the events of September 11. In the process, while a large part of the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon has been eliminated, a new era has begun in the Syria geography. New opportunities have emerged for the Syriacs and Kurds throughout the region. Because the dictatorial system that weighed heavily on them has been hit hard, their dynamics has become even stronger.

Just as oppressed peoples who have returned to the stage of history need allies, Israel also needs the friendship and freedom of these peoples in order to maintain and develop its existence. The struggle between the status quo powers versus the free-people’s-system has revealed a different paradigm. The politics based on religious, ethnic and sectarian animosities imposed by the dominant status quo forces has now gone bankrupt. People are learning that it is not necessary to be hostile towards Jews, Christians, Yazidis or Alawites. As it becomes increasingly difficult to use the Kurds as a tool against everyone as before, the pains of the regime system increase, and the interests of the rulers are damaged. The new Syrian page that opens in the Middle East must be written on a correct and contemporary basis. Its constitution must be a model for the Middle East, provide a radical solution to all issues, and lead to peace in the region. With the establishment of a system based on the union of democratic, liberal, egalitarian, pluralistic and secular formations, primitive hostilities and the genocidal mentality will come to an end. That is; Syriacs and Kurds in Syria will never again be without status, identity, or administration.

The views expressed in this op-ed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of SyriacPress.