Turkey continues military expansion in Kurdistan Region of Iraq, establishing 136 bases

ARBA’ILO, Kurdistan Region of Iraq — Turkey has significantly expanded its military presence in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), increasing the number of permanent bases from 15 in 2018 to at least 136 by early 2024, according to an investigation by The National Context. This represents an 89% increase, effectively creating a militarized buffer zone along the Turkish-Iraqi border that extends up to 40 kilometers deep in some areas.

Satellite imagery analyzed by experts, alongside field reports, reveals that Turkey has constructed approximately 660 kilometers of military roads connecting these outposts. This expansion has enabled Ankara to assert control over more than 2,000 square kilometers of territory in northern Iraq. However, Iraq’s national security advisor offered a differing assessment in a March 2025 interview, estimating the number of Turkish bases to be just over 100, reflecting possible discrepancies in definitions between “base” and “outpost.”

Shift in Strategy

Turkey’s presence in northern Iraq dates back to 1992, when the US-led coalition imposed a ‘no-fly zone’, paving the way for the formation of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Historically, Turkish military incursions into Iraq were temporary, with troops withdrawing before winter due to logistical challenges. However, advancements in Turkey’s defense industry — particularly in drone technology, surveillance, and electronic warfare — have facilitated a sustained military presence.

The collapse of the peace process between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê, PKK) in the mid-2010s further accelerated this shift. As the PKK adopted urban warfare tactics, Turkey implemented a drone-enabled “decapitation strategy,” targeting high-ranking PKK operatives beyond its borders. Simultaneously, Ankara established a permanent military belt inside the KRI, reducing PKK activity within Turkey while maintaining constant pressure on the group year-round.

Regional Implications

In 2024, Turkey and Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate against the PKK, lifting restrictions on Turkish military operations within Iraq. However, Ankara’s strategic calculations have been complicated by the emergence of PKK-aligned forces in northeastern Syria, where US support has added layers of complexity to Turkey’s objectives.

While the PKK conflict remains fundamentally political, Turkey’s strategy appears focused on militarily weakening the group to negotiate from a position of strength. Given the rugged terrain connecting the KRI to Turkey’s mountains and the evolving regional dynamics, a Turkish withdrawal from northern Iraq appears unlikely in the foreseeable future — even in the event of a PKK disbandment.