Why Iran Will Lose

By Hicham Bou Nassif | Weinberg Associate Professor of International Relations and the Middle East and George R. Roberts Fellow at Claremont McKenna College-California

The ongoing war between Israel and Iran could last for weeks, perhaps longer. I cannot predict when it will end, but it is reasonable to estimate that Iran will lose for the following reasons:

I: Balance of Military Power Favors Israel

Israel spends nearly three times more on its military than Iran. According to the Financial Times, Israel’s annual military spending approaches $20 billion, while Iran’s barely exceeds $7 billion.

This war is primarily an air war — and Israel possesses some of the world’s most advanced fighter jets. In contrast, Iran’s aircraft are outdated relics from the 1960s and 1970s. The key observation here is that the Israeli Air Force will dominate Iranian airspace almost completely, while Iran’s obsolete jets won’t even get close to Israel, and most of its missiles will be intercepted mid-air.

II: Israel’s Army is Professional, Iran’s Exists to Protect the Regime

The Israeli military is a highly professional force where advancement is based on merit. It is a war machine built to defend national security.

In contrast, Iran’s armed forces exist primarily to protect the regime, not the nation. This was also true of Nasser’s Egypt. When Field Marshal Montgomery mocked “Field Marshal” Abdel Hakim Amer, he was right from a military competence standpoint, but that was the least of Nasser’s concerns. What mattered to him was regime security, which is why he promoted his low-ranking friend Amer to leadership and turned Egypt’s officer class into a new breed of privileged Mamluk servants.

The disastrous military performance of Nasser and Amer in 1967 reflected the regime’s priorities, and Khamenei’s regime today is no different. Democratic nations consistently field stronger armies than autocracies.

III: Israel is Winning the Intelligence War

The strike that eliminated Iran’s top Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. (IRGC) commanders and scientists on the first day of the war suggests that Mossad’s infiltration of Iran mirrors its legendary penetration of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, there is no sign that Israel has been similarly compromised by Iranian intelligence. Once again, this comes down to regime priorities: in autocracies, intelligence agencies focus on spying on the ruling class’s enemies, not the nation’s.

Nasser’s Egypt is again a fitting analogy here. Just before the 1967 war, its military discovered that its maps of Israel were outdated, dating back to before the 1952 Free Officers’ coup. Why? Because Nasser’s intelligence apparatus had spent years monitoring his personal enemies — not Egypt’s.

IV: Iran is Internationally Isolated

China will not challenge the West for the sake of the mullahs, and Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine, all while Putin maintains good relations with Israel. Even European nations, which oppose Netanyahu’s policies in Gaza, are far closer to Israel than to Tehran.

Meanwhile, Israel relies on unwavering US support that will never allow its defeat, let alone its existential threat.

V: Israeli Unity vs Iranian Division

Not all Israelis like Netanyahu, but the entire nation stands behind its government against Iran.

In contrast, there are undoubtedly Iranians praying for Israel to defeat the mullahs and weaken the regime enough for an internal opposition to overthrow it. The public stances of Maryam Rajavi (People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, MEK) and Reza Pahlavi (son of the late Shah) are clear indicators of this sentiment.

Hatred for the regime will inevitably make it easier for Israel to penetrate Iranian society. Even if some regime opponents temporarily soften their stance, driven by anti-Israeli nationalism, this will only last as long as the fighting continues. Once the war ends and Iranians wake up to a reality worse than before, the calculus will change.

Conclusion: Iran will Lose

Unless US President Donald Trump rescues Tehran with one of his unpredictable policies, Iran is headed for defeat. A loss would strip Iran of its nuclear deterrent, following the erosion of its regional proxy influence.

This may not immediately topple the mullahs’ regime, but the odds of its collapse will rise, especially in the post-Khamenei era.

This article was originally published in Arabic by Nida al-Watana on 16 June 2025. The original can be found here.

The views expressed in this op-ed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of SyriacPress.