US Secretary of State Rubio warns of potential collapse of Syrian Transitional Government

 WASHINGTON, D.C. — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a stark warning to Congress on 20 May, predicting that Syria’s Transitional Government (STG), led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani during his time as the head of the Islamist group Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), could collapse within weeks, sparking a catastrophic civil war. 

Rubio’s alarming statement coincided with Washington’s decision to lift key sanctions on Syria, a move aimed to stabilize the country. 

Earlier this month, former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford shed light on al-Sharaa’s unexpected rise during a seminar at the Council on Foreign Affairs in Baltimore. Ford revealed that in early 2023, a British NGO specializing in conflict resolution enlisted his expertise to mentor al-Sharaa for political leadership. Ford recounted participating in three meetings — two in Edleb (Idlib) in 2023 and a third after al-Sharaa’s ascension to the presidency in January 2024 — offering “political training and support necessary for legitimacy.” 

On 20 May, however, the Syrian Transitional Presidency categorically denied Ford’s account. While acknowledging that Ford met with al-Sharaa as part of a British delegation, the Presidency asserted their discussions were confined to general reflections on Edleb’s opposition-era governance. Claims of political grooming or leadership training were labeled as “false.” 

These developments underscore the volatility of Syria’s post-Assad political landscape. Rubio’s warnings, Ford’s revelations, and the STG’s denials reflect the intense external and internal pressures on the new political order. With legitimacy in question and stability uncertain, Syria’s future remains precariously balanced.